James Posey Loves You

It's time to prepare for the end of the Hornets. Whether the whole concept is dead, the myth of Chris Paul is over, or we just accept that they aren't very good, we need to be realistic.

For some members of the team, the offseason will be a time to reboot. Chris Paul is the best point guard in a league that is becoming increasingly dependent on the position. David West and Tyson Chandler, when healthy, are stars caught in CP3's gravitational field. Without Paul on the court, the team is either lost or completely transparent. It was that environment that allowed Jannero Pargo, through all his faults, to administer his own brand of justice.

For others, it is a just a pause. Rasual Butler time travels, Peja has no meaning, and Hilton Armstrong ceases to exist. The true outcast is James Posey.

Posey means different things to different people but still retains his identity. James is James. He is championship glue, ardent defender, three point assassin. He is none of those things.

Statistically, Posey has been remarkably consistent during his career (Thanks, basketball-reference):

Clearly, James is in the decline phase of his career, and he still offers capable defense of slower 3s and smaller 4s, efficient three-point shooting, and hugs for teammates. He was a key player in getting the Celtics the championship last year. Surprisingly. He was excellent in the clutch, scoring 14.8 points (adjusted by 82games) with a 0.500 eFG%.

Compare that to this season, where Posey's on-court presence is negligible but his clutch scoring and efficiency are up. I'm not going to go over the problems with his contract, seeing as KD already wrote that killer piece this week. However, even if Tyson Chandler fully recovers, I doubt Posey can play the same role he did with Boston.

Shoals (I think) said last year how funny it was that the Celtics were so dependent on Posey threes to win games. It's true, and Posey was a perfect fit for Boston at the end of games. Not only did he fit defensively, adding both versatility and toughness when Kendrick Perkins was off the floor, but he spaced the floor. This allowed more freedom for the rest of the lineup, who for better or worse, all had some ability to create their own shot (yes, I am including KG and Rondo).

On the Hornets, Posey is somewhat more limited because he is a catch-and-shoot threat only. Chris Paul dominates the ball in the clutch and scores 45.1 points/48. This inevitably leads to some assists for James, which explains the jump in his efficiency and clutch scoring. However, the scoring potential of this lineup is inherently limited, as Posey is often inserted into the game along with Butler, Peja, or Chandler in addition to CP3 and David West. With two (arguably) players able to truly create, this team just has a hard time scoring.

While Posey has a reputation for championship-building, he can't overcome these structural shortcomings. Unless the Hornets manage to procure cheap scorers and more depth (think Von Wafer), he's stuck.

On Bill Walker and Intangibles

This is not meant to be a screed, but I think there are some things that need to be said. I respect Doc Rivers, and what he did to get the Celtics the championship last season. I respect that he somehow learned to manage the rotation and unite the team around the cosmic Thibodeau/KG defense. I don’t think that we need to rehash his problems before the KG trade, and I don’t think that anyone needs to question every decision he makes. This critique is more related to the fallout of his coaching than the actual rationale behind it.

As you may or may not have noticed from my posts and my frequent commenting around the internets, I like Bill Walker. I really like Bill Walker. I understand that he is a rookie, that I need to be realistic, and that I need to temper my expectations. That said, it is hard to stomach the ubiquitous criticism that he is a punk and that he somehow deserves our scorn for not respecting elders. And it’s hard to stomach when Brian Scalabrine gets playing time over him.

But this isn’t about Scalabrine. And this isn’t about Walker’s playing time. I know why Walker doesn’t play. We all do. It’s because Rivers does not trust rookies, or at least certain rookies. And he certainly does not trust Walker—not enough to get crunch time minutes, and not enough to get (many) postseason minutes. The one young player he does trust, beyond comprehension, is Glen Davis. For some reason, Davis has never been on Rivers’ bad side. Before trades sent Sebastian Telfair and Delonte West out of Boston, Rivers would yank point guards and rookies out as soon as they made a mistake. When depth threatened that strategy, he relented, and Rondo’s development was keyed by that confidence, even if it was forced.

That isn’t the case with Davis. From the instant he was drafted, Rivers has had confidence in him. In 07-08, Davis played 13.6 minutes per game over 69 games, including 10 games in November. He was given 15.5 minutes per game in December. Compare this to Leon Powe, who played in 56 games and didn’t start receiving meaningful minutes until late January. All he did was put up a 21.04 PER over the season. Davis offered a PER of 11.40 in 07 and was terrible for most of this season, but that’s besides that point.

The problems with Scalabrine are well-documented, and if you’re reading this blog, I don’t need to spell them out for you. However, fans respond to this criticism with cries about his intangibles, and how he is an indispensable part of the locker room.

Brian Scalabrine is probably a cool guy. I’m sure I’d get along with him. I’d buy him drinks if I met him in a bar. But why is he a great teammate when Bill Walker gets derided? Everything that I’ve seen from Walker indicates that he is a dude who would do anything to win. He isn’t scared of anyone, and he aims to destroy with his athleticism, even if his knees can’t handle it. That is someone who I want on my team. That is someone I want playing as much as possible.

I know that Bill Walker probably won’t ever get the playing time that I think he merits. After all, it is Bill Walker. Even so, the primacy of Scalabrine’s intangibles is not an adequate reason for justifying his playing time and denying Walker’s. It’s lazy journalism and lazy fandom. And we all deserve better.

The Hawk Speaks

Sapnin America? It's me, Hawkitus T. Spirit. You can call me Heezy.

The mainstream media is telling you that I disrupted last night's Hawks-Heat playoff game. It's true--I did. But that's not the whole story.

You see, they keep me in a cage. A horrible cage. Next to Mike Bibby. I can't stand him.

Last year, they kept me next to Salim Stoudamire.
He talked to me. He fed me. He told me his secrets.

But then Salim left. And I was depressed.

Until last night.

Last night, I spread my wings and soared into the night. I was free, not only in my heart, but in my mind. It was like Salim had come back into my life.

And then I saw him.
And it all came flooding back. I resigned myself to my fate.

SALIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIM. Come back to me.

Possible Screenplays for Rasual Butler

• Rasual travels back in time and must make his parents fall in love, thus ensuring that he is born. While in 1955, Rasual falls in love and has children. He realizes he is his own son.
• Rasual comes to possess an all-powerful ring. He is sent on a quest to destroy, but learns how to wield it. He becomes lord of the world. All shall love him and despair.
• Rasual investigates the Zodiac killer. He finds the culprit, and the handwriting matches.
• Rasual leads the Hornets in a daring casino robbery to win back his ex-girlfriend. He becomes the casino owner.
• Rasual looks like the President of the United States, who has a stroke. Rasual becomes President. He amends the constitution and becomes President for life.
• Rasual is a Congressman who funds a covert war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. It all works out and he goes to live with his many women secretaries in Guatemala.
• Rasual is Iron Man.
  

Assorted Thoughts on Celtics-Bulls

• Why Glen Davis gets 40 minutes is beyond me. 18 points on 15 shots and only 3 rebounds. Compare this to Leon Powe, who netted 8 on 5 shots and 8 rebounds with only 2 fewer shots at the line. Davis is terrible on rotations, and even though he's lost weight, he still plays under the basket and is overwhelmed by both Brad Miller-types and Tyrus Thomas.
• I don't buy the whole "Leon is our bench scorer" bit, mostly because Davis has free reign to chuck up as many shots as he wants when he is on the court. Powe gets usage during one stretch every game, and then gets buried by Rivers. This is not Davis getting his due. This is not letting Powe recover from his injury. This is straight up Rivers, mismanaging the rotation.
• Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose are awesome. I am so excited to watch the rest of the series.
• Speaking of Brad Miller, what's up, dude? The Bulls would have crushed the Celtics if his shot was on.
• Ray Allen's ankles need rest. His shot is flat, and he can't keep playing 39 minutes a game.
• Salmons' beard is teleology.
  

Demetri Martin Presents the NBA Playoffs

Hi. Welcome to Important Things with Demetri Martin and carbs.

I'm carbs.

Tonight's Important Thing is the NBA Playoffs.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16)
IMPORTANT THING: DESTINY
LeBron James is evolution. LeBron James is creation. LeBron James is science.

2. Boston Celtics (62-20)
IMPORTANT THING: SAFETY
Rajon Rondo is the keeper of keys and the arbiter of justice.

3. Orlando Magic (59-23)
IMPORTANT THING: GRAVITY
Dwight Howard is the sun and Rashard Lewis is the east.

4. Atlanta Hawks (47-35)
IMPORTANT THING: GAMES
Prepare to be outhustled, outjumped, and outran.

5. Miami Heat (43-39)
IMPORTANT THING: BACKPACKS
Chris Quinn is upset about this card.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)
IMPORTANT THING: CHAOS
Thaddeus Young and Andre Iguodala love to take the ball from you.

7. Chicago Bulls (41-41)
IMPORTANT THING: PUZZLES
Vinny Del Negro listens to Will Shortz on his iPod.

8. Detroit Pistons (39-43)
IMPORTANT THING: PROCRASTINATION
Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell go to the buffet. Yeah, that buffet.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Los Angeles Lakers (65-17)
IMPORTANT THING: AWESOMENESS
Do you really want to play the Lakers?

2. Denver Nuggets (54-28)
IMPORTANT THING: COOLNESS
Dahntay Jones starts for this team. Seriously.

3. San Antonio Spurs (54-28)
IMPORTANT THING: ORDER
Tim Duncan studies geometry. Roger Mason Jr. studies courage.

4. Portland Trail Blazers
IMPORTANT THING: TIMING
Brandon Roy collects watches. He has many watches.

5. Houston Rockets (53-29)
IMPORTANT THING: COMPUTERS
Kyle Lowry is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

6. Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
IMPORTANT THING: RESOLVE
Mark Cuban likes stats. And strange stats. And stats that like Jason Kidd.

7. New Orleans Hornets (49-33)
IMPORTANT THING: PRECISION
Chris Paul is a samurai on roller skates. With radio transmitters.

8. Utah Jazz (48-34)
IMPORTANT THING: TRADITION
Jerry Sloan demands viewership.

Point Guards and Point Centers

In Shoals' indispensable Then & Now column this week, he mentioned this potential externality of the postseason:

A thought for the draft: While Williams's Jazz, who are absolutely inept on the road, shouldn't be doing much in the postseason, what happens if the Hornets go on a run, Billups takes the Nuggets deeper into the playoffs than they've been in years, or Derrick Rose puts his name back on the map by going down in a blaze of nationally-televised glory against Boston? Does the stock of the PG in general shoot up? Or if Bynum provides the Lakers with the ammunition they need to coast right past even the Cavs or Celtics, or Dwight Howard's Magic (admittedly Hedo-less for the time being) surprise us all and make the Finals, is there a run on big men? When the class is considered weak, "best available" gives way to a referendum on what kind of players matter.

I think he even underestimates the impact of a CP3 or Rose explosion. Any indication of point guard domination will completely reorient this draft. Looking at the latest DraftExpress 2009 mock, here are the point guards likely to get snatched in the first round:

• Ricky Rubio (2nd)
• Brandon Jennings (6th)
• Tyreke Evans (8th)
• Stephen Curry (10th)
• Ty Lawson (12th)
• Jonny Flynn (15th)
• Jeff Teague (19th)
• Eric Maynor (20th)
• Jrue Holiday (23rd)
  
• Darren Collison (28th)
  
• Nick Calathes (30th)

Patty Mills and A.J. Price follow early in the second round. This list does not count either James Harden or Willie Warren, although anyone who watched Harden this year (5.1 ast/40 pace-adjusted) knows how much he facilitated ASU's offense. Any change in point guard value will affect Harden and possibly Warren as well.

Beyond Blake Griffin, the stock of big men is relatively weak. Hasheem Thabeet is extremely limited offensively. Ed Davis and Greg Monroe are likely to return to school and need more experience. Cole Aldrich will probably follow the same course. B.J. Mullens is the definition of raw.

If Chicago pulls off an upset or Paul leads the Hornets to the Western Conference finals, what's to stop Jonny Flynn, Jeff Teague, or even Eric Maynor slipping into the lottery? What if Rajon Rondo, not Paul Pierce or KG, leads the Celtics past the Cavs? Given the right team, Ricky Rubio could unseat Griffin at the top of the draft or Jrue Holiday could skyrocket up the boards. This could even have lingering effects on the 2010 offseason. If point guards are really the way forward, how does this change the market for Chris Bosh?

The NBA playoffs are always a spectacle. This year may be a panacea.

TCD Exclusive: Sixers Change Lineup

PHILADELPHIA -- The Carbs Dribble has learned that the Philadelphia 76ers plan to revamp their starting lineup prior to the beginning of the playoffs. Most commentators believe that the Eastern Conference will be won the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, or Orlando Magic. Today, the Sixers will attempt to shatter that equilibrium. Interim coach Tony DiLeo will use this lineup in their first round playoff series.

PG: Handouts Guy Ed
Handouts Guy Ed, more affectionately known as Handouts, will be the primary ballhandler for this new lineup. He never loses the dribble, rarely turns the ball over, and is a master at running the break.

SG: Dad Hey Outguns
Outguns is the team's leading scorer and a deadly shooter. He can take you off the dribble, and if you leave him open, he won't miss.

SF: Daunted Hugs Yo
Daunted Hugs is a tenacious wing defender who can drive at will. He is a combination of Bruce Bowen's ferocity, Shane Battier's intellectualism (computers?), and Gerald Wallace.

PF: Eh Gaudy Donuts
Donuts is a power forward whose game most resembles Carlos Boozer. You know, the good parts. Just kidding. There are no good parts. Carlos probably wouldn't get the joke, either.

(Disclaimer: Previous section may or may not have been written by Matt Moore)

C: Daunt Ye Doughs
Daunt Ye Doughs is an unparalleled defensive force. He blocks every shot. He grabs every rebound. He gets out on every screen. He intimidates Dwight Howard.

I was able to sit down with Mr. Doughs at practice yesterday. I asked him a few questions about the new lineup.

TCD: How excited are you to be named to the starting lineup for the playoffs?
DYD: I am very excited. I've been doing my thing all year and Coach DiLeo finally recognized me.
TCD: What do you think your chances are in the postseason?
DYD: If we go out there and play our game, I think we can beat any team, man. Even the Bucks.
TCD: How do you feel about the other members of the new starting lineup?
DYD: They're great, man. Great. I feel like I've been playing with these guys for years. We're just so in sync. It's like they cloned me four times.
TCD: Thanks for joining me.
DYD: Yep.

This is a truly interesting development. This new lineup may propel the Sixers to the NBA finals.

Get pumped, Philadelphia!

Ramon Sessions For America

America is in trouble. We face a deepening economic crisis, two international wars, and the threat of having to watch golf on TV. To triumph over these problems, we need a new direction.
As, you know, America has a history of political Sessions:
Ramon Sessions shares this civic impulse, and is running for Congress. In Wisconsin. Watch out, Russ Feingold! Here is a closer look at Ramon's platform:
Ramon Sessions understands defense. He favors a strong military. He will fight for you.
Ramon Sessions knows that in this economic climate, people need assistance. He will extend benefits for all Americans.
Politics today is increasingly contentious. Ramon Sessions believes that we need to work together to help America. Here, Ramon is having a great discussion with his colleagues from Sacramento.
America needs support from our allies if we want to achieve desirable international outcomes. Ramon Sessions has always understood this. He is pictured here having productive negotiations with ambassadors from Canada and Australia.

Ramon Sessions believes in America. Ramon Sessions believes in you. Vote for Ramon Sessions in November!

A New Stat, Head and Shoulders Above The Rest

The current hot fad in sports is stats. In the world of basketball stats, many people have tried to boil down an individual player’s contributions to a single number. John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the most popular and well known of these metrics.

As a professional statistician, I understand the myriad flaws of Hollinger’s statistics. However, this economic crisis has been hard on economists and academics. Work is scarce. I have had to scrounge for peanuts at Cirque de Soleil to feed my children. That said, I have recently come into some money because of generous support from an anonymous donor. This has allowed me to perfect my own statistical model, which vastly improves on Hollinger’s methods. I call this statistic the Player Efficiency Rating Triangulation Plus (PERT+).

PERT+ tweaks Hollinger’s formula by adding defensive variables that John has not thought of yet. He has published the PER equation, but it is impossible to understand. Unless you have a PhD, like I do. Some people don’t publish their formulas because they are scared that people will steal them and profit. Well, I am never scared. Here is the final form of my equation:

PERT+ = [uPERT+ * (lgPace/tmPace)] * (15/lguPERT+) + 100KL

In this iteration, the variable KL is a binary variable that equals 1 if the player is Kyle Lowry and 0 if the player is not Kyle Lowry. PERT+ is easy to understand because it uses the same scale as PER, with 15 being the normalized league average. Using the new equation, here are the league leaders in PERT+ for 2008-2009:

Coincidentally, Kyle Lowry’s PERT+ this season is the highest PERT+ of all time. Also, you may be asking how Ricky Rubio’s PERT+ is so high when he hasn’t even played in the NBA. To be honest, I can’t answer that. For some reason, PERT+ loves Ricky Rubio’s flowing locks.

In closing, PERT+ should become a great evaluation tool for years to come. It also sheds insight on this year’s MVP race. It brings up this question: why isn’t Kyle Lowry getting more consideration for MVP? Sure, LeBron James is good. But he’s no Kyle Lowry.

The Revolution Will Be Undersized

While I subscribe to the FD notion of apositionality, I find myself always rooting for a certain type of player: the undersized power forward. These dudes might not have the height that scouts herald, but they make up for it with length, athleticism, and toughness. An afterthought entering the league, they are changing it from the inside. They have started the Undersized Power Forward Revolution.

Carl Landry, Houston Rockets
Landry is pure beast. And he's apparently Superman. He terrorizes defenses with his hops, and shuts offenses down with the anger of Chuck Hayes.

Leon Powe, Boston Celtics
Powe's offensive repertoire is as solid as it is hilarious. His moves are more chaotic than Tony Allen, yet he has great touch and somehow holds on to the ball. If you give him the rock, he will get to the rim.

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
Watching Millsap rebound is an experience. In Carlos Boozer's absence, he showed Salt Lake City that he is The Future. He is pure fury.

Brandon Bass, Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Bass has a developing offensive game and super strength. He is the only reason to watch the Mavericks (sorry, Mahoney. Still read you every day, though).

Glen Davis, Boston Celtics
Glen Davis is bad. I will not use his nickname, even if it is vaguely insulting. However, he has filed a formal protest to this rejection. Awaiting further evidence.

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
In the words of the truly excellent John Krolik, "Kevin Love is corpulent and can rebound. Also, he looks like a jerk." You cannot join the revolution if your defining move is the outlet pass.

After the draft, there will be others joining the revolution. Support us, masses!

Bill Walker, Movie Buff

(Inspired by Trey)