A New Stat, Head and Shoulders Above The Rest

The current hot fad in sports is stats. In the world of basketball stats, many people have tried to boil down an individual player’s contributions to a single number. John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the most popular and well known of these metrics.

As a professional statistician, I understand the myriad flaws of Hollinger’s statistics. However, this economic crisis has been hard on economists and academics. Work is scarce. I have had to scrounge for peanuts at Cirque de Soleil to feed my children. That said, I have recently come into some money because of generous support from an anonymous donor. This has allowed me to perfect my own statistical model, which vastly improves on Hollinger’s methods. I call this statistic the Player Efficiency Rating Triangulation Plus (PERT+).

PERT+ tweaks Hollinger’s formula by adding defensive variables that John has not thought of yet. He has published the PER equation, but it is impossible to understand. Unless you have a PhD, like I do. Some people don’t publish their formulas because they are scared that people will steal them and profit. Well, I am never scared. Here is the final form of my equation:

PERT+ = [uPERT+ * (lgPace/tmPace)] * (15/lguPERT+) + 100KL

In this iteration, the variable KL is a binary variable that equals 1 if the player is Kyle Lowry and 0 if the player is not Kyle Lowry. PERT+ is easy to understand because it uses the same scale as PER, with 15 being the normalized league average. Using the new equation, here are the league leaders in PERT+ for 2008-2009:

Coincidentally, Kyle Lowry’s PERT+ this season is the highest PERT+ of all time. Also, you may be asking how Ricky Rubio’s PERT+ is so high when he hasn’t even played in the NBA. To be honest, I can’t answer that. For some reason, PERT+ loves Ricky Rubio’s flowing locks.

In closing, PERT+ should become a great evaluation tool for years to come. It also sheds insight on this year’s MVP race. It brings up this question: why isn’t Kyle Lowry getting more consideration for MVP? Sure, LeBron James is good. But he’s no Kyle Lowry.

The Revolution Will Be Undersized

While I subscribe to the FD notion of apositionality, I find myself always rooting for a certain type of player: the undersized power forward. These dudes might not have the height that scouts herald, but they make up for it with length, athleticism, and toughness. An afterthought entering the league, they are changing it from the inside. They have started the Undersized Power Forward Revolution.

Carl Landry, Houston Rockets
Landry is pure beast. And he's apparently Superman. He terrorizes defenses with his hops, and shuts offenses down with the anger of Chuck Hayes.

Leon Powe, Boston Celtics
Powe's offensive repertoire is as solid as it is hilarious. His moves are more chaotic than Tony Allen, yet he has great touch and somehow holds on to the ball. If you give him the rock, he will get to the rim.

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
Watching Millsap rebound is an experience. In Carlos Boozer's absence, he showed Salt Lake City that he is The Future. He is pure fury.

Brandon Bass, Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Bass has a developing offensive game and super strength. He is the only reason to watch the Mavericks (sorry, Mahoney. Still read you every day, though).

Glen Davis, Boston Celtics
Glen Davis is bad. I will not use his nickname, even if it is vaguely insulting. However, he has filed a formal protest to this rejection. Awaiting further evidence.

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
In the words of the truly excellent John Krolik, "Kevin Love is corpulent and can rebound. Also, he looks like a jerk." You cannot join the revolution if your defining move is the outlet pass.

After the draft, there will be others joining the revolution. Support us, masses!

Bill Walker, Movie Buff

(Inspired by Trey)