Wednesday, April 29, 2009

James Posey Loves You


It's time to prepare for the end of the Hornets. Whether the whole concept is dead, the myth of Chris Paul is over, or we just accept that they aren't very good, we need to be realistic.

For some members of the team, the offseason will be a time to reboot. Chris Paul is the best point guard in a league that is becoming increasingly dependent on the position. David West and Tyson Chandler, when healthy, are stars caught in CP3's gravitational field. Without Paul on the court, the team is either lost or completely transparent. It was that environment that allowed Jannero Pargo, through all his faults, to administer his own brand of justice.

For others, it is a just a pause. Rasual Butler time travels, Peja has no meaning, and Hilton Armstrong ceases to exist. The true outcast is James Posey.

Posey means different things to different people but still retains his identity. James is James. He is championship glue, ardent defender, three point assassin. He is none of those things.

Statistically, Posey has been remarkably consistent during his career (Thanks, basketball-reference):

Clearly, James is in the decline phase of his career, and he still offers capable defense of slower 3s and smaller 4s, efficient three-point shooting, and hugs for teammates. He was a key player in getting the Celtics the championship last year. Surprisingly. He was excellent in the clutch, scoring 14.8 points (adjusted by 82games) with a 0.500 eFG%.

Compare that to this season, where Posey's on-court presence is negligible but his clutch scoring and efficiency are up. I'm not going to go over the problems with his contract, seeing as KD already wrote that killer piece this week. However, even if Tyson Chandler fully recovers, I doubt Posey can play the same role he did with Boston.

Shoals (I think) said last year how funny it was that the Celtics were so dependent on Posey threes to win games. It's true, and Posey was a perfect fit for Boston at the end of games. Not only did he fit defensively, adding both versatility and toughness when Kendrick Perkins was off the floor, but he spaced the floor. This allowed more freedom for the rest of the lineup, who for better or worse, all had some ability to create their own shot (yes, I am including KG and Rondo).

On the Hornets, Posey is somewhat more limited because he is a catch-and-shoot threat only. Chris Paul dominates the ball in the clutch and scores 45.1 points/48. This inevitably leads to some assists for James, which explains the jump in his efficiency and clutch scoring. However, the scoring potential of this lineup is inherently limited, as Posey is often inserted into the game along with Butler, Peja, or Chandler in addition to CP3 and David West. With two (arguably) players able to truly create, this team just has a hard time scoring.

While Posey has a reputation for championship-building, he can't overcome these structural shortcomings. Unless the Hornets manage to procure cheap scorers and more depth (think Von Wafer), he's stuck.

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