Point Guards and Point Centers

In Shoals' indispensable Then & Now column this week, he mentioned this potential externality of the postseason:

A thought for the draft: While Williams's Jazz, who are absolutely inept on the road, shouldn't be doing much in the postseason, what happens if the Hornets go on a run, Billups takes the Nuggets deeper into the playoffs than they've been in years, or Derrick Rose puts his name back on the map by going down in a blaze of nationally-televised glory against Boston? Does the stock of the PG in general shoot up? Or if Bynum provides the Lakers with the ammunition they need to coast right past even the Cavs or Celtics, or Dwight Howard's Magic (admittedly Hedo-less for the time being) surprise us all and make the Finals, is there a run on big men? When the class is considered weak, "best available" gives way to a referendum on what kind of players matter.

I think he even underestimates the impact of a CP3 or Rose explosion. Any indication of point guard domination will completely reorient this draft. Looking at the latest DraftExpress 2009 mock, here are the point guards likely to get snatched in the first round:

• Ricky Rubio (2nd)
• Brandon Jennings (6th)
• Tyreke Evans (8th)
• Stephen Curry (10th)
• Ty Lawson (12th)
• Jonny Flynn (15th)
• Jeff Teague (19th)
• Eric Maynor (20th)
• Jrue Holiday (23rd)
  
• Darren Collison (28th)
  
• Nick Calathes (30th)

Patty Mills and A.J. Price follow early in the second round. This list does not count either James Harden or Willie Warren, although anyone who watched Harden this year (5.1 ast/40 pace-adjusted) knows how much he facilitated ASU's offense. Any change in point guard value will affect Harden and possibly Warren as well.

Beyond Blake Griffin, the stock of big men is relatively weak. Hasheem Thabeet is extremely limited offensively. Ed Davis and Greg Monroe are likely to return to school and need more experience. Cole Aldrich will probably follow the same course. B.J. Mullens is the definition of raw.

If Chicago pulls off an upset or Paul leads the Hornets to the Western Conference finals, what's to stop Jonny Flynn, Jeff Teague, or even Eric Maynor slipping into the lottery? What if Rajon Rondo, not Paul Pierce or KG, leads the Celtics past the Cavs? Given the right team, Ricky Rubio could unseat Griffin at the top of the draft or Jrue Holiday could skyrocket up the boards. This could even have lingering effects on the 2010 offseason. If point guards are really the way forward, how does this change the market for Chris Bosh?

The NBA playoffs are always a spectacle. This year may be a panacea.